05 Jan 11 - 韋恩 2011年十大驚奇

近日，黑石集團（Blackstone）旗下顧問機構主席的韋恩（Byron Wien）發表一年一度公佈的10大驚奇預測。今年韋恩（Byron Wien）其實發表「二十大驚奇」，筆者暫看頭10大參考一下。




韋恩2011年十大驚奇

（1）美國經濟增長高達5%，失業率跌到9%以下
The continuation of the Bush tax cuts coupled with the extension of unemployment benefits has put all working Americans in a better mood. Real Gross Domestic Product rises close to 5% in 2011 driven by improved trade and capital spending in addition to stronger retail sales. Unemployment drops below 9%.

（2）美國負債加劇， 10年期國債嘅債息將升到5厘水平

The prospect of increasing Federal budget deficits and rising government debt finally begins to weigh on the bond market. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury approaches 5% as foreign investors become more demanding. Spreads with corporate fixed income securities narrow.

（3）標普500指數升上 1500點，但係下半年會隨住加息而出現調整

Encouraged by renewed economic momentum the Standard & Poor’s 500 rises close to its old high of 1500. A broad range of sectors participate, but telecommunications and utilities lag. With earnings improving, valuations seem low and individual investors return to equities for the first time since the financial crisis. Merger and acquisition activity becomes intense and the market reaches a blow-off euphoria. Stocks correct in the second half as interest rates rise.

（4）現貨金價會升上每盎斯1600美元嘅歷史新高

Although inflation remains benign, the price of gold rises above $1600 as investors across the world place more of their assets in something they consider “real.” Sovereign wealth funds of countries with significant dollar reserves also become big buyers. Hedge funds keep thinking the price rise is becoming parabolic and sell their positions and some even short the metal but gold keeps climbing and they scramble back in.

（5）中國繼續操控人民幣滙率，令經濟增長維持喺10%以下

Worried about inflation and excessive growth, the Chinese decide to use their currency as a policy tool. They manage the value of the renminbi aggressively to keep the growth of the economy below 10% and to prevent consumer prices from increasing above the 4%–5% range. The move is viewed as a precursor to the world-wide adoption of a basket including the renminbi as an alternative to the use of the dollar as the principal reserve currency.

（6）農產品價格繼續飆升

Rising standards of living in the developing world seriously increase the demand for agricultural commodities. The price of corn rises to $8.00, wheat to $10.00 and soybeans to $16.00. Commodities become a component of more institutional portfolios.

（7）美國樓市情況持續改善，新屋動工今年會逾60萬間

Rising standards of living in the developing world seriously increase the demand for agricultural commodities. The price of corn rises to $8.00, wheat to $10.00 and soybeans to $16.00. Commodities become a component of more institutional portfolios.

（8）供求失衡令油價升上每桶115美元

Rising standards of living in the developing world seriously increase the demand for agricultural commodities. The price of corn rises to $8.00, wheat to $10.00 and soybeans to $16.00. Commodities become a component of more institutional portfolios.

（9）美軍喺巴基斯坦同伊拉克作戰了無寸進，奧巴馬會加速撤兵，受恐襲嘅風險增加

Frustrated by the lack of progress against the Taliban and the corruption of the Karzai government, President Obama concludes that whenever American troops return home, Afghanistan will once again become a tribal state ruled by warlords. He accelerates the withdrawal of most military personnel to the end of 2011. Coupled with the pullout of forces in Iraq, this will leave the Middle East without a major Western presence in the face of rising fears of terrorism.

（10）歐盟同IMF會向財困國家貸款，歐洲債務問題唔會演變成大問題

Under duress Angela Merkel leads the way in European financial reform. The weaker countries, having pledged to cut their budget deficits in half by 2014, are provided additional transitional aid by the European Union (with Germany’s backing) and the International Monetary Fund as long as they implement their austerity programs, increase some taxes and still show modest growth. The European financial crisis becomes less of a concern. The policies put in place prove psychologically satisfying to the financial markets but harmful in the longer term because they are palliative and do not represent solutions.



回顧過去一年，韋恩的10大驚奇，只有一兩項貼中。
■　 05 May 10 - 韋恩的10大驚奇 (2010年)

（1）美國經濟增長率達到遠超預期的5%，失業率下跌到9%以下。
■　 美國去年經濟復甦放緩，彭博社受訪經濟師預估去年全年僅增長2.8%；失業率不曾回落至9%以下，十一月仍高企9.8%。
（2）聯儲局加息，到年底超逾2厘(現時為0至0.5厘)。
■　 冇加息，更推出次輪量化寬鬆措施（QE2）刺激經濟。
（3）10年期美國國庫債券孳息率升至5.5厘以上。
■　10年期美債孳息僅高見3.99厘。
（4）標普500指數上試1300點後乏力回軟。
■　算是對現，亦可說不太中！2010年1年的1132點上升到1200以上，然後回軟至1020點左右，但年尾前又升至1250以上，全年升13%。)
（5）美元兌歐元和日圓上升。美元兌日圓將升抵100日圓兌1美元，兌歐元上看1.30美元兌1歐元。 
■　對現一半！歐元由2010年1日1.45美元跌至6月低見1.2美元以下。但日圓由92升至現82日圓兌1美元。
（6）日本是主要工業國中表現最佳的市場。
■　日本經濟冇乜起色
（7）美國總統奧巴馬立法推動核能。
■　沒有出現
（8）經濟反彈強化奧巴馬政府。
■　錯。民主黨於去年十一月初的國會中期選舉，分別在眾議院和參議院失去63席及6席，合共69席。
（9）美國政府對金融業的監管力度比想像中輕。
■　對現！
（10）伊朗的內部不穩達到高峰，巴基斯坦繼續成為地區熱點。
■　沒有出現



參考：

1. Byron Wien Announces The Ten Surprises for 2011
http://www.blackstone.com/cps/rde/xchg/bxcom/hs/news_pressrelease_6596.htm

2. Byron Wien Presents His 10 Big Surprises For 2011
http://www.businessinsider.com/blackstones-byron-wien-10-surprises-2011-2011-1#1-gdp-surges-to-5-growth-and-unemployment-falls-below-9-1

3. 東方日報 大好友去年跌眼鏡

4. 蘋果日報 韋恩十大驚奇　最奇舊年冇個中

5. 太陽報 韋恩十大驚奇估美經濟勁