- 1.30美元兌1歐元: 中了
- 標普500指數上試1300點 (4月曾經上升到1200以上): 算是中了
2010年十大驚奇 - 林少陽
.. .. ..繼續收到大行關於未來一年經濟、市場及個別行業的展望報告，每本都有百幾頁紙，即使只是走馬看花、水過鴨背，亦吃不消。然而，不論怎忙都好，我都會花點時間，看看前摩根士丹利美國策略師韋恩(Byron Wien)每年的十大驚奇。
自1986年開始，韋恩每年都會發表一篇關於未來一年的「十大驚奇」(Top 10 Surprises)，多年來贏得口碑不絕。即使近年他已離開大摩，轉往私人股本(Private Equity)投資公司百仕通(Blackstone)任副主席，即使新職沒有需要向外發表研究報告，但他仍然從善如流，每年向傳媒發表他的「十大驚奇」。
對他來說，今年最大的驚奇，相信會來自美國的經濟增長潛力，將遠超過市場預期，達到5%的水平。失業率亦將回落至9%以下。
刺激美國經濟的，主要是出口、存貨增加，以及科技開支上升，因此標普500指數每股盈利，亦將升至80美元水平，優於市場的預期。
就最近美國的失業率趨勢看，今年失業率跌低於9%，相信沒有多大難度。然而，若韋恩關於美國經濟增長的預期準確的話，對我來說，是喜出望外(除非他所指的增長並未經通脹調節的帳面富貴，則是另話)。
再者，如果科技開支上升的話，則多家經營電腦儀器出口的本港及台灣公司，今年盈利，以及股價可能會跑贏大市。然而，受惠於美國科技開支上升的中港台上市的公司不多，我能想得到的，只有聯想(992)、ASM太平洋(522)及台灣半導體(TSMC)，而他們能否大幅跑贏指數，我暫時未做詳細研究，真的不敢說，讀者不妨再作深入研究。
基於以上樂觀的市場預測，韋恩相信今年上半年標普500指數將持續攀升至1,300點。然而，強勁的美國經濟，將誘使聯儲局於第二季開始「提前」加息(一般相信美國今年仍沒有多大的加息條件)，通脹復燃及加息周期提早來臨，令本來盈利增長不俗的股市，中途脫腳回落，第三季將一度回落至1,000點，並於年底重返今年的起步點。已連續十年股票市場「零回報」的美股，將順延至第11個年頭。
美國提早踏入加息周期，將刺激本來已經超值的美元，出現強力的反彈，歐元將跌至1.3美元，美元兌日圓亦將重返100以上。然而，之後的走勢將難以預測。令人意外地，日圓弱勢，造就日本出口企業盈利回升，令日本在今年成熟市場中表現超群，一吐2009年的烏氣。
無論你是否同意他的看法，我認為上述的非主流觀點，對我籌劃今年的投資大計，頗有刺激思維的作用。
韋恩預估的10大驚奇 (The Surprises of 2010)
1. 美國經濟增長率達到遠超預期的5%，失業率下跌到9%以下。
- The United States economy grows at a stronger than expected 5% real rate during the year and the unemployment level drops below 9%. Exports, inventory building and technology spending lead the way. Standard and Poor’s 500 operating earnings come in above $80.
2. 聯儲局加息，到年底超逾2厘(現時為0至0.5厘)。
- The Federal Reserve decides the economy is strong enough for them to move away from zero interest rate policy. In a series of successive hikes beginning in the second quarter the Federal funds rate reaches 2% by year-end.
3. 10年期美國國庫債券孳息率升至5.5厘以上。
- Heavy borrowing by the U.S. Treasury and some reluctance by foreign central banks to keep buying notes and bonds drives the yield on the 10-year Treasury above 5.5%. Banks loan more to corporations and individuals and pull away from the carry trade, thereby reducing demand for Treasuries. Obama says, “The suits are finally listening”.
4. 標普500指數上試1300點後乏力回軟。
- In a roller coaster year the Standard and Poor’s 500 rallies to 1300 in the first half and then runs out of steam and declines to 1000, ending where it started at 1115.10. Even though the economy is strong and earnings exceed expectations, rising interest rates and full valuations present a problem. Concern about longer term growth and obligations to reduce leverage at both the public and private level unsettle investors.
(註: 4月曾經上升到1200以上)5. 美元兌歐元和日圓上升。美元兌日圓將升抵100日圓兌1美元，兌歐元上看1.30美元兌1歐元。
- Because it is significantly undervalued on a purchasing power parity basis, the dollar rallies against the yen and the euro. It exceeds 100 on the yen and the euro drops below $1.30 as the long slide of the greenback is interrupted. Longer term prospects remain uncertain.
6. 日本是主要工業國中表現最佳的市場。
- Japan stands out as the best performing major industrialized market in the world as its currency weakens and its exports improve. Investors focus on the attractive valuations of dozens of medium sized companies in a market selling at one quarter of its 1989 high. The Nikkei 225 rises above 12,000.
7. 美國總統奧巴馬立法推動核能。
- Believing he must be a leader in climate control initiatives, President Obama endorses legislation favorable for nuclear power development. Arguing that going nuclear is essential for the environment, will create jobs and reduce costs, Congress passes bills providing loans and subsidies for new plants, the first since 1979. Coal accounts for about 50% of electrical power generation, and Obama wants to reduce that to 25% by 2020.
8. 經濟反彈強化奧巴馬政府。
- The improvement in the U.S. economy energizes the Obama administration. The White House undergoes some reorganization and regains its momentum. In the November Congressional election the Democrats only lose 20 seats, much less than expected.
9. 美國政府對金融業的監管力度比想像中輕。
- When it finally passes, financial service legislation, like the health care bill, proves to be softer on the industry than originally feared. There is greater consumer protection, more transparency, tighter restriction of leverage and increased scrutiny of derivatives, but the regulatory changes for investment bankers and hedge funds are not onerous. Trading volume and merger activity increases; financial service stocks become exceptional performers in the U.S. market.
10. 伊朗的內部不穩達到高峰，巴基斯坦繼續成為地區熱點。
- Civil unrest in Iran reaches a crescendo. Ayatollah Khameini pushes out Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in favor of a more public relations adept leader. Economic improvement becomes the key issue and anti-Israel rhetoric subsides. Talks with the U.S. and Europe begin but the country remains a nuclear threat. Pakistan becomes the hotspot in the region because of the weak government there, anti-American sentiment, active terrorist groups and concerns about the security of the country’s nuclear arsenal.
後記:
1. 加入 美元-歐元 圖表
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